Page 8 - FDMAsia Nov/Dec 2025

6 MARKET BEATS NOV/DEC 2025 FDM ASIA | www.fdmasia.com

Freepik On the demand side, sawn softwood consumption across
EOS member countries plus the UK increased by 2.1 percent
in 2024 to reach 42.8 million cubic metres, still 13 percent
below 2021 levels. The European Timber Trade Federation

(ETTF) forecasts consumption will edge upward to 43.5 million
cubic metres in 2025 and 43.9 million cubic metres in 2026.
“For the third consecutive year, the first two quarters
European softwood sawn timber market experiencing of 2025 offered hope in some European countries with
modest recovery increasing exports and European consumption—slightly and
Industry outlook for 2025-2026 reveals cautious optimism from a relatively low basis,” Sneck noted. “The summer was
despite raw materials constraints and shifting demand patterns. disappointing and the feeling across the industry is that the
The European softwood industry is navigating a period next few months will not be great.”
of gradual stabilisation after three years of difficult market Import volumes tell a similar story of modest recovery.

conditions, according to outlooks presented at the 73rd Total imports to major European markets reached 48.2 million
International Softwood Conference in Oslo in October 2025. cubic metres in 2024, up by 5.4 percent from forecasts made
While both producers and traders report modest improvements, the previous year.
the sector faces continuing challenges, including record-high For 2025, ETTF Vice-President Morten Bergsten projects imports
log prices, limited spruce availability, and subdued construction of 48.5 million cubic metres, with a slight decline to 46.1 million
activity across key markets. cubic metres in 2026, driven primarily by reduced US imports.
European sawmill production has plateaued at approximately Besides, EU exports of sawn softwood to non-EU markets

78 million cubic metres per year across European Organisation totalled €6.5 billion in 2024 ($7.48 billion), up by 13 percent in
of the Sawmill Industry (EOS) member countries since 2023, the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
representing a 10 percent decline from the 2021 peak of 86 The US remains the largest single destination outside
million cubic metres, according to EOS President Tommi Sneck. Europe, accounting for over 16.5 percent of extra-EU exports,
When including all EU countries plus Norway and Switzerland, followed by Japan (9.4%) and Egypt (6.4%).
total production reaches 97 million cubic metres. However, China’s share has collapsed to just 2.2 percent
“After peaking in 2021, production in the EOS countries as deliveries fell by 37 percent in the first half of 2025 to only
declined significantly over the last few years to adjust to the €85 million. The UK, while technically outside the EU, can be
demand decline,” Sneck told conference attendees. “Since considered part of the European market and accounts for 26

2023, in the EOS countries overall, production is stable at percent of non-EU deliveries.
around 78 million cubic metres on levels lower than the period “In H1 2025, shipments to the US increased by 19 percent
before the pandemic.” to €620 million, to Japan they declined by 7 percent to €350
Through the data from European Organisation of the million,” Sneck reported. “Deliveries to Egypt grew by 8 percent
Sawmill Industry (EOS), Germany has experienced the steepest to €240 million, while deliveries to China went down by 37
production decline from 2021 peaks, while Finland shows percent to just €85 million.”
recovery with a forecast increase to 11.7 million cubic metres The US market outlook includes a forecast 10.7 percent

in 2025. Austria, Sweden and, among smaller producers, decline in imports for 2026 to 22 million cubic metres, though
Latvia and Norway, have largely stabilised their output levels. domestic consumption is expected to rise by 3.5 percent to