Page 11 - FDMAsia Nov/Dec 2025

MARKET BEATS 9
www.fdmasia.com | FDM ASIA NOV/DEC 2025

have been particularly hard hit, with Germany, France, Finland, KoK-Liang
and Austria all experiencing significant permit declines. Spain
stands out as a positive outlier with expanding construction
activity.

Russian competition persists in key markets
Russian lumber production has also declined from pandemic-era
peaks, stabilising at around 28 million cubic metres annually,
down from over 32 million cubic metres in 2021. Russian schemes (FSC, PEFC, DGNB ratings for buildings).
exports have fallen by approximately 40 percent since 2019 The European Timber Trade Federation (ETTF)'s Vice-
to 18.7 million cubic metres in 2024. President Morten Bergsten struck a cautiously optimistic note
China absorbs about 60 percent of Russian exports (11.2 about the sector’s direction: “Europe is on the path to recovery,
million cubic metres in 2024), though these volumes declined and our business – our trade, our industry – is looking ahead

by 10 percent year over year in the first half of 2025 as to a slightly more positive 2026. Despite many uncertainties,
Chinese market prices remained depressed. especially on the political and regulatory level, wood remains
Russia is redirecting volumes to MENA (Middle East and the future–naturally.”
North Africa) and CIS countries (Commonwealth of Independent The consensus outlook for 2025-2026 reflects modest
States), with an estimated 1.7 million cubic metres shipped improvement from a low base, with consumption forecast to
to MENA in 2024, including 550,000 cubic metres to Egypt. increase by approximately 2.5 percent compared with 2024
Notably, Russia still exports sizable quantities to Japan, levels. However, this growth remains well below what would

maintaining a presence in this important market despite EU be needed to support an accelerated green transition in
sanctions on Russian timber. European construction.
“In the short term the situation will remain difficult for
Wood industry in EU calls for policy support the European wood industry,” Sneck concluded. “There is
At the 73rd International Softwood Conference, presenters renewed hope for 2026, but the industry has already been
emphasised the need for supportive policy frameworks to disappointed over the last couple of years.”
enable recovery and address structural challenges. Key questions for the sector include whether construction
Tommi Sneck, the president of European Organisation of markets have truly bottomed out, whether the second half of
the Sawmill Industry (EOS) highlighted the tension between 2026 will bring stronger recovery, how the industry will adapt

sustainability regulations and supply availability. to reduced spruce availability, and whether log prices will
“We need to fight in Brussels and at the national level to moderate to restore profitability.
show policymakers that if we are serious about decarbonisation, With Europe having underbuilt housing for nearly 20 years,
European forests should not be seen as ‘green museums’ but increasing renovation requirements for energy efficiency, and
also as essential providers of wood,” he argued. “So, policies wood’s growing market share as a building material, the
need to reflect this.” fundamentals suggest potential for stronger growth. Whether
The presentations referenced numerous regulatory frameworks 2026 marks the turning point remains to be seen, but both

affecting the sector, including the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR), producers and traders are positioning for gradual improvement
EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), and various certification while managing continuing structural challenges.