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MATERIALS 59
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this value tend to eliminate the project's economic margin, under simultaneous variations in the evaluated input variables.
especially when transportation distances are long and harvesting Interest rate, transportation distance, manual loading cost,
productivity is low. and harvesting productivity were identified as the variables with
Producers should avoid supply contracts below this the greatest influence on project performance.
minimum price unless they can reduce transportation, loading, The integration of deterministic economic indicators with
or harvesting costs. probabilistic risk analysis enabled the identification of operational

Manual loading cost was another variable with a negative threshold values for transportation distance, timber price, wood
effect on NPV, indicating that labour-intensive operations reduce productivity, and land cost under the operational, economic,
the economic resilience of low-margin forestry systems. and logistical conditions evaluated in this study.
Motor-manual harvesting productivity was the only variable These thresholds provide objective decision-support
with a positive effect on NPV. This confirms that productivity parameters for transportation planning, cost management, and
gains reduce production costs per cubic metre and improve investment decision-making in forestry projects with similar
economic performance. production systems and cost structures.
Operator training, preventive maintenance, work organisation, For forestry managers and investors, the following practical
and better coordination between cutting, extraction, loading, guidelines emerge from this study:

and transportation should be treated as managerial priorities. • Transportation distance should be kept below 148 km when
Overall, the sensitivity analysis provides practical decision land cost is considered, as distances beyond this limit may
rules for forestry project management: keep transportation compromise project viability.
distance below 148 km, negotiate timber prices above USD • Timber prices should be negotiated above USD 28.98 m⁻³
28.98 m⁻³, reduce manual loading inefficiencies, improve to maintain a positive economic margin.
harvesting productivity, and prioritise lower-cost financing. • Manual loading operations should be carefully managed to
These rules translate the economic sensitivity results into reduce costs and improve synchronisation with harvesting

operational parameters that support transportation planning, and transportation.
cost control, and risk reduction in forestry projects. • Investments in operator training and productivity improvement
for motor-manual harvesting yield direct economic benefits.
Conclusions • Access to financing with lower interest rates significantly
The integrated deterministic and probabilistic economic improves project attractiveness and reduces economic risk.
analyses demonstrated that the evaluated eucalyptus forestry
project was economically viable under both scenarios (with Overall, the proposed framework supports more reliable
and without land costs). economic planning by incorporating uncertainty into investment
However, the reduced operational slack for transportation analysis and identifying critical operational thresholds, thereby

distance, timber price, and wood productivity indicates limited improving decision-making and economic risk management in
economic robustness and high sensitivity to relatively small forestry projects.
operational and market variations. This integrated approach is particularly valuable for small
Monte Carlo simulation complemented the deterministic and medium-sized forestry producers operating under tight
analysis by demonstrating that positive deterministic economic profit margins, where small variations in costs or revenues can
indicators alone do not guarantee economic robustness, determine the success or failure of the investment. FDM
revealing an 11.5 percent probability of economic infeasibility ENQUIRY NO. 4401