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pexels-lauri-poldre probability of negative NPV values, demonstrating that the
project operates under moderate economic risk despite the
positive deterministic indicators.
This result shows that economic viability is sensitive to
simultaneous fluctuations in operational and financial variables,
particularly in production systems with reduced profit margins.

Earlier studies have also reported the occurrence of
economic risk in eucalyptus-based production systems subjected
to operational and market uncertainties.
In contrast, other researchers found lower economic risk
costs, wood flow efficiency, and supply chain performance in under more favourable management conditions, reinforcing that
forestry systems. project stability depends on the balance between operational
These findings highlight the importance of locating wood costs, productivity, and timber revenue.
supply areas closer to the mill and improving transportation The probability distribution obtained in this study indicates
planning to reduce operational costs and increase logistical that relatively small variations in input variables may shift the

efficiency. project from a viable to an unfeasible condition. This behaviour
Optimising transport routes and synchronising harvesting, reflects the limited economic robustness observed in scenario 1.
loading, and transportation operations may reduce idle time, Overall, the probabilistic analysis demonstrated that
improve delivery reliability, and enhance wood flow performance deterministic indicators alone may overestimate project stability.
in forestry supply chains. Incorporating uncertainty into economic analysis improves risk
Integrated planning between harvesting operations, transportation interpretation and supports more reliable decision-making in
scheduling, and industrial demand also contributes to reducing forestry investment planning.

delays and minimising acquisition and inventory costs.
Recent studies demonstrate that digitalised logistics systems, Key Variables Influencing Economic Performance
operational coordination, and route consolidation improve The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that interest rate,
decision-making efficiency and increase resilience in timber transportation distance, and manual loading cost were the
supply chains operating under long transportation distances variables with the greatest negative influence on NPV.
and market uncertainty. This result agrees with previous studies, which showed that
In addition, coordination among forest producers, transport increasing interest rates reduce the attractiveness of forestry
companies, and processing industries becomes essential to projects because future revenues lose present value in long
maintain operational continuity in low-margin production systems. production cycles.

Integrated transportation planning and operational synchronisation The strong negative effect of transportation distance on
may reduce supply risks, improve transportation performance, NPV has also been well documented. The threshold of 148
and increase the economic resilience of forestry operations. km for transportation distance provides a practical decision
rule for defining wood acquisition areas, selecting suppliers,
The Role Of Probabilistic Analysis In Forestry and planning transportation routes.
Investment Decisions The threshold timber price of USD 28.98 m⁻³ provides
The Monte Carlo simulation indicated an 11.5 percent a managerial rule for price negotiation. Timber prices below