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MATERIALS 57
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projects because future revenues lose present value in long indicated by the skewness coefficient close to zero and the
production cycles. Therefore, projects operating with low profit proximity between mean and median NPV values.
margins require stricter control of financial costs and should The kurtosis result indicated moderate concentration of
prioritise credit lines with lower interest rates. observations around the mean, demonstrating limited dispersion
Transportation distance also showed a strong negative of simulated values.
effect on NPV. In the present study, the project showed only The percentile analyses showed that 95 percent of the

10 km of transportation slack in scenario 1. NPV values generated in the simulation were below USD
Therefore, under the evaluated conditions, transportation 264.13 ha⁻¹.
distances above 148 km should be avoided. This threshold Despite the predominance of positive NPV values, the
provides a practical decision rule for defining wood acquisition lower percentiles showed negative NPV results, confirming
areas, selecting suppliers, and planning transportation routes. the possibility of economic infeasibility under unfavourable
The threshold timber price of USD 28.98 m⁻³ also provides operational and financial conditions.
a managerial rule for price negotiation. Timber prices below Overall, the statistical analysis reinforced that the project
this value tend to eliminate the project's economic margin, remained economically viable in most simulated scenarios;
especially when transportation distances are long and harvesting however, the occurrence of negative NPV values in the lower

productivity is low. percentiles demonstrated that relatively small increases in
Therefore, producers should avoid supply contracts below operational costs or reductions in revenue may compromise
this minimum price unless they reduce transportation, loading, project profitability under unfavourable conditions.
or harvesting costs.
Manual loading cost was another variable with a negative Practical Implications For Forestry Management And
effect on NPV. This result indicates that labour-intensive Decision-Making
operations reduce the economic resilience of low-margin The reduced transportation slack observed in scenario 1

forestry systems. indicates that the project operates close to its economic and
Producers should reduce loading delays, improve synchronisation logistical limit. Small increases in transportation distance, fuel
between harvesting and transport, and evaluate more efficient costs, loading time, or road maintenance may compromise
loading systems. project viability.
Motor-manual harvesting productivity was the only variable Transportation distance strongly influences harvesting
with a positive effect on NPV. This result confirms that productivity
gains reduce production costs per cubic metre and improve
economic performance. PickPik
Therefore, operator training, preventive maintenance,

work organisation, and better coordination between cutting,
extraction, loading, and transportation should be treated as
managerial priorities.

Statistical Analysis
The statistical distribution generated by the Monte Carlo
simulation showed approximately symmetrical behaviour, as