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MARKET BEATS 9
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While China was not a huge market for sawn timber from Mild concerns for New Zealand's log export
New Zealand, the organisation representing sawmills and According to farmersweekly.co.nz, export log supplies from
timber treatment companies is “nervous” about that sector’s New Zealand as for the start of 2025 were at a record high,
biggest trading partner – the United States. with mild concerns that the market may be oversaturated

New Zealand Timber Industry Federation CEO Jeff Ilott as a result.
said proposed tariffs on exports of sawn timber from New The month of February 2025 was relatively quiet in terms
Zealand to the US were not due to be introduced until later of market movements, which is to be expected as Chinese
in the year. traders have mostly been away on holiday while the domestic
“We will wait and see.” market has continued to mostly trade on quarterly contracts
Ilott said for the year to December 2024, exports of sawn signed at the start of the year.
timber to China increased from 210,000 cubic metres to about The big news at the start of February was United State
250,000 cubic metres (returning around $331 per cubic metre). President Donald Trump’s move to introduce an additional 10
However, he said this does not represent a “big return” percent tariff on all Chinese goods, then just a month later

for New Zealand’s annual billion-dollar sawn timber export he upped it to 20 percent.
business. Export log supplies from New Zealand during January
NZ Forest Owners’ Association board member Marcus were at a record high for the month and there are mild
Musson said overall it's not all doom and gloom for the concerns that the market may be oversaturated as a
industry, with supply matching demand the key. result.
Fluctuations in the Chinese market were “not unusual”, For wharfgate log values, it’s been nothing but good news
he said, with some commentators predicting a rebound in for harvesters. Both the low exchange rate and shipping costs

construction next year. have combined with stable CFR rates to place A-grade logs
Musson said the furniture market—NZ logs processed in in the low-to-mid $130/JASm3 range in the North Island and
China and exported to the US—has remained strong, but the upper South Island.
proposed tariffs have created some uncertainty. Domestically, it’s mostly been more of the same. While
On the home front, he says more biofuel opportunities there’s been the odd report of improvements in housing starts
need to be pursued, as does “mass timber building” in the following steady reductions in the official cash rate, the return
residential, commercial and industrial sectors. to normal operations for mills nationwide has added extra
supply to the market and usually kept timber prices either
stable or otherwise weaker.

Those who opted to prune trees have continued to be well
rewarded as up to $230/tonne have been paid for P1 logs in
large parts of the North Island. This continues a trend that
started mid-last year, with the differential between these and
S1 logs among the largest on record in percentage terms,
and the largest in raw dollars per tonne.
Besides, carbon markets have been largely stable over

February, essentially holding within a dollar of $63/NZU since
the start of the month.