New orders in April were nine percent lower than April 2018. Only 36 percent of the participants reported increased orders for April versus April 2018.
Shipments and Backlogs of Furniture
Shipments in April 2019 were down 2 percent from April 2018. Shipments were down for 55 percent. Shipments in April in dollars were about the same as orders. Year to date, shipments were up 2 percent compared to a three percent increase reported last month.
With dollar amounts of orders and shipments close to the same, backlogs remained about the same as in March. Backlogs were also about even with last year April results.
Receivables and Inventories of Furniture
Receivable levels were three percent higher in April 2019 than April 2018. Receivable levels were three percent lower than March, also out of line with the decrease in shipments of 11 percent for the same period. The increase over April 2018 was a bit out of line, but not all that out of line with the year to date shipment increase, so overall, receivables may still be in decent shape.
Inventories were eight percent higher in April 2019 versus 2018, up from 6 percent reported last month. While only 55 percent of the participants reported increased inventories, several large participants reported significant increases over last year. But inventories were only up one percent over March so the poor results of April orders made the increase in inventories over last year seem even worse. Clearly, inventory levels need watching especially if this slowdown in orders continues.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales rebounded in May, recording an increase in sales for the first time in two months, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Each of the four major US regions saw a growth in sales, with the Northeast experiencing the biggest surge last month.
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 2.5 percent from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million in May. Total sales, however, are down 1.1 percent from a year ago (5.40 million in May 2018).
Single-family home sales sat at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.75 million in May, up from 4.63 million in April and down 0.8 percent from 4.79 million a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $280,200 in May, up 4.6 percent from May 2018.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in May, up 1.7 percent from the prior month and down 3.3 percent from a year ago. The median existing condo price was $257,100 in May, which was up 5.4 percent from a year ago.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said the 2.5 percent jump shows that consumers are eager to take advantage of the favorable conditions. “The purchasing power to buy a home has been bolstered by falling mortgage rates, and buyers are responding.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $277,700, up 4.8 percent from May 2018 ($265,100). May’s price increase marks the 87th straight month of year-over-year gains.
Total housing inventory at the end of May increased to 1.92 million, up from 1.83 million existing homes available for sale in April and a 2.7 percent increase from 1.87 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from both the 4.2 month supply in April and from 4.2 months in May 2018.
Though inventory is up, the months’ supply numbers remain near historic lows, which has a direct effect on price, according to Mr. Yun. “Solid demand along with inadequate inventory of affordable homes have pushed the median home price to a new record high,” he said.
Properties remained on the market for an average of 26 days in May, up from 24 days in April and equal to the 26 days in May of 2018. Fifty-three percent of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.
Given that housing and properties have been selling so quickly, Mr. Yun continues his call for new construction. “More new homes need to be built,” he said. “Otherwise, we risk worsening the housing shortage, and an increasingly number of middle-class families will be unable to achieve homeownership.”
New Residential Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in May 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This was 7.8 percent below the revised April rate of 679,000 and was 3.7 percent below the May 2018 estimate of 650,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2019 was $308,000. The average sales price was $377,200.
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 333,000. This represents a supply of 6.4 months at the current sales rate. New home sales were up 2.4 percent in the Midwest and 1.3 percent in the South, but were off 15.2 percent in the Northeast and 17.2 percent in the West compared to May a year ago.
Housing Starts
The US Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,269,000.
This was 0.9 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,281,000 and was 4.7 percent below the May 2018 rate of 1,332,000.
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 820,000; this was 6.4 percent below the revised April figure of 876,000. Compared to May 2018, single-family housing starts were down 12.5 percent in May 2019. Single-family starts were up in the South 8.1 percent but down 32.4 percent in the Northeast, 33.1 percent in the Midwest and 0.6 percent in the West.
Privately-owned housing completions in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,213,000. This was 9.5 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,340,000 and was 2.8 percent below the May 2018 rate of 1,248,000. Single-family housing completions in May were at a rate of 890,000; this was 5.0 percent below the revised April rate of 937,000.
