As of October 2021, the most recent data available, sawmill employment was 90,100. This is a 2.4 percent increase from October 2020, or a net gain of 2,100 jobs. Residential construction employment was up 4.0 percent or 118,500 net jobs over the same period.
With the increase in workers, sawmill output did increase over the 12 months ending September 2021, albeit along a choppy trend. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis demonstrates that the seasonally adjusted rate of sawmill output in September 2021 (the most recent available) was 1.2 percent higher than in September 2020. However, output in Q3 2021 was 1.3 percent lower than it was in Q3 2020.
Total sawmill output in 2020 was up 3.3 percent compared to 2019 due to a year-end upswing in production. This uptick continued over the first nine months of 2021 as output through September 2021 was 3.1 percent higher than it was over the same period in 2020. Compared to 2019, however, output was just 1.6 percent higher.
The 2020 increase in output was insufficient to keep up with the demand from residential construction and this has remained the case in 2021. The growing gap between single-family starts and sawmill output, particularly in 2020, is the reason for the dramatic increase in lumber prices. It is important to keep in mind that single-family starts were up 13.6 percent in 2020 and are up 15.7 percent in 2021.
