In 2018, WRI estimates show that the total trade of softwood logs in 2018 reached a new record high of 93 million cubic metres. This was up from just 61 million cubic metres immediately following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2007/08, a remarkable 52 percent increase in trade in just ten years. 

Over the past decade, imports by Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Nordic countries have increased the most, while imports to Central Europe have grown more modestly.

Log imports to China (the world’s largest log importer) actually fell eight percent in the 1Q/19 from the previous quarter, the biggest quarter-over-quarter decline in four years, reports the WRQ. This was the third consecutive quarter with reduced import volumes of logs and lumber, reflecting slowing economic activities in China in the second half of 2018 and early 2019.

Sawlog prices fell throughout the world in the 1Q/19 due to plentiful supply or reduced demand for lumber, depending on the region. The Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) fell 1.8 percent quarter-over-quarter in the 1Q/19 to its lowest level since the 2Q/17. 

Despite having declined almost eight per cent in one year, the current GSPI is still only a few percentage points below its 10-year average. The biggest declines over the past year have been in Austria, Germany, the US Northwest, the Czech Republic and Northwest Russia.

In the 1Q/19, the Euro-denominated European Sawlog Price Index (ESPI) dropped 3.1 percent from the previous quarter to its lowest level since 2010. 

The downward price pressure on sawlogs was mostly a reflection of sufficient log supply, and only slightly connected to lower demand for raw-material by the sawmilling sectors throughout Europe. The largest price reductions from the 4Q/18 to the 1Q/19 occurred in the Czech Republic, Germany, Finland, Austria and Latvia. 

Spruce Sawlog Prices Still under Pressure in Norway

The average price across the whole range of roundwood assortments fell slightly again in May 2019. Following the decline in April, this reduction to 438 NOK/m³ is the second in succession. The figure is still 10.3 percent higher than in the same month of last year, however, reports from EUWID.

The figures from Statens Landbruksforvaltning (SLF) of Oslo reveal uneven development, though. After reaching an interim high in March 2018, when an average price of 457 nkr/m³ was achieved across all product ranges, the decline now amounts to 19 nkr/m³ or around 4.2 percent.

Whilst the average price for spruce sawlogs fell by one percent to 524 NOK/m³, the price for pine sawlogs rose again to 490 NOK/m³. Compared to the same month last year, prices for both spruce and pine are thus 6.5 percent higher.

In the industrial-wood assortments, prices for pine as well as spruce rose slightly above the previous month’s level to 340 NOK/m³ and 358 NOK/m³, respectively, whilst the price for industrial hardwood fell by 4 NOK/m³ against April to 318 NOK/m³. According to the SLF figures, however, prices still rose quite considerably above those of last year by between 27 percent and almost 30 percent.